Lyon vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 8Kick-off on January 28, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Groupama Stadium, Saint-Denis
The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Lyon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bayer Leverkusen wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,618 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lyon vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (2,316 vs 2,184).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lyon vs Bayer Leverkusen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lyon
4-1-2-1-2- 7E. Nuamah
- 11Keito Nakamura
- 23T. Morton
- 8C. Tolisso
- 99N. Nartey
- 18K. Merah
- 20F. Bacher
- 13Z. Athekame
- 16Abner
- 21R. Kluivert
- 1D. Greif
Bayer Leverkusen
4-2-3-1- 11M. Terrier
- 24Aleix García
- 30I. Maza
- 10M. Tillman
- 6E. Fernández
- 23N. Tella
- 12E. Tapsoba
- 3Miguel Gutiérrez
- 17Lucas Vázquez
- 5L. Badé
- 1M. Flekken
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 08:20 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lyon have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Bayer Leverkusen have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Anderlecht(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Paris FC(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Lech Poznan(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(away) | 4-3 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | RB Leipzig(home) | 2-0 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Celje(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 2-2 | Bundesliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Lyon score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Bayer Leverkusen score 3.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 3.1 | 0.9 | 8 | 7/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lyon sit 8th in UEFA Europa League (6 points from 2 matches) and Bayer Leverkusen sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
A question about Lyon vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lyon vs Bayer Leverkusen?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Lyon.
- Where and when is Lyon vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
- Lyon vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on January 28, 2027 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Groupama Stadium, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.