Match

Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

Union BerlinBayer Leverkusen

The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Union Berlin. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bayer Leverkusen wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 3,311 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 290-point Elo edge (2,336 vs 2,046).

22%22%56%
Union Berlin winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Union Berlin

4-2-3-1
  1. 21T. Skarke
  1. 8R. Khedira
  2. 20M. Aebischer
  3. 11Jeong Woo-Yeong
  4. 13A. Schäfer
  5. 9Livan Burcu
  1. 15T. Rothe
  2. 2F. Uduokhai
  3. 19J. Haberer
  4. 4Z. Van Den Bosch
  1. 1F. Rønnow

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
  1. 14P. Schick
  1. 24Aleix García
  2. 9Afonso Moreira
  3. 6E. Fernández
  4. 30I. Maza
  5. 19M. Diaby
  1. 2F. Medina
  2. 4J. Quansah
  3. 12E. Tapsoba
  4. 3Miguel Gutiérrez
  1. 1M. Flekken

Computed on October 24, 2026 at 04:39 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Berlin have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Bayer Leverkusen have 12, 1 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Union Berlin
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026FC Augsburg(away)1-1Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026Borussia Dortmund(home)0-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026SV Elversberg(home)1-0Bundesliga
Sep 18, 2026Bayern München(away)0-7Bundesliga
Sep 11, 2026FC Schalke 04(home)1-3Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 22, 2026OFI(away)2-0UEFA Europa League
Oct 18, 2026SC Freiburg(home)2-1Bundesliga
Oct 15, 2026Lech Poznan(away)4-0UEFA Europa League
Oct 10, 2026FSV Mainz 05(away)4-3Bundesliga
Sep 20, 2026RB Leipzig(home)2-0Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Union Berlin win, 1 draw, 4 Bayer Leverkusen wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 5, 2026Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
Feb 21, 2026Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Oct 4, 2025Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
Apr 12, 2025Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
Nov 30, 2024Union Berlin 1-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Apr 6, 2024Union Berlin 0-1 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin on Sep 5, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Union Berlin score 1.3 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Union Berlin1.32.3210/1510/15
Bayer Leverkusen2.70.987/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Union Berlin sit 17th in Bundesliga (5 points from 6 matches) and Bayer Leverkusen sit 4th (13 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
4Bayer Leverkusen641116913
17Union Berlin61235175

A question about Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Union Berlin.
Where and when is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on January 30, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen

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