Maia Lidador vs Vila Meã: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Maia Lidador the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Vila Meã. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maia Lidador vs Vila Meã?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Maia Lidador (1,761) and Vila Meã (1,812).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 3 matches in all competitions, Maia Lidador have 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Vila Meã have 2, 10 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | SC Braga B(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Brito(away) | 1-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Os Limianos(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Anadia(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vila Real(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Gouveia(away) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Maia Lidador score 0.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 3; Vila Meã score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maia Lidador | 0.7 | 1.7 | 0 | 2/3 | 2/3 |
| Vila Meã | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 3 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maia Lidador vs Vila Meã?
- The Footlab model makes Maia Lidador the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Vila Meã.
- Where and when is Maia Lidador vs Vila Meã played?
- Maia Lidador vs Vila Meã is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.