Atletico Madrid vs Espanyol: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Espanyol. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Espanyol?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 204-point Elo edge (2,241 vs 2,037).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Espanyol have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Levante(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Atletico Madrid win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Espanyol win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 4-2 Espanyol | La Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Espanyol 2-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Espanyol 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 0-0 Espanyol | La Liga |
| May 24, 2023 | Espanyol 3-3 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 6, 2022 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Espanyol | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Espanyol on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Espanyol score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Espanyol | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 3rd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Espanyol sit 5th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Espanyol?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for Espanyol.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Espanyol played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Espanyol is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.