Real Madrid vs Getafe: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 78%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Getafe. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Getafe?
Real Madrid is a heavy favourite: 2,356 Elo points against 2,043, a 313-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Madrid vs Getafe
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 15A. Güler
- 16I. Konaté
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 24D. Dumfries
- 1T. Courtois
Getafe
5-4-1- 20Iván Azón
- 11Ramón Terrats
- 16Francho Serrano
- 21Andrés García
- 6Mario Martín
- 2D. Dakonam
- 8N. Gudelj
- 24Z. Romero
- 22J. Mojica
- 17Kiko Femenía
- 13David Soria
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Getafe have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 0-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Real Madrid wins, 0 draws, 1 Getafe win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | Real Madrid 0-1 Getafe | La Liga |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Getafe 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Getafe 0-1 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 1, 2024 | Real Madrid 2-0 Getafe | La Liga |
| Feb 1, 2024 | Getafe 0-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Real Madrid 2-1 Getafe | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Getafe score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Getafe | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 4th in La Liga (18 points from 8 matches) and Getafe sit 14th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 8 |
A question about Real Madrid vs Getafe?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Getafe?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 78%, against 15% for a draw and 7% for Getafe.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Getafe played?
- Real Madrid vs Getafe is played on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.