Maritimo vs Chaves: prediction and stats
Taça de PortugalRound of 32Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes Maritimo the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Maritimo wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maritimo vs Chaves?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Maritimo (1,995) and Chaves (1,922).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maritimo vs Chaves
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maritimo
4-2-3-1- 17Adrián Butzke
- 10Martín Tejón
- 6Rodrigo Andrade
- 14Raphael Guzzo
- 8M. Dominguez
- 11M. Diouri
- 2Igor Julião
- 23Paulo Henrique
- 22G. Szalai
- 4Rafael Fernandes
- 30Fran Vieites
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 17Roberto
- 30Costinha
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 9Marcos André de Menezes Diniz
- 23Léo Alabá
- 7R. Esajas
- 14N. Araújo
- 3Aarón Romero
- 1João Valido
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 07:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maritimo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Chaves have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 1-2 | Taça da Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-5 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alcochetense(away) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Penafiel(home) | 2-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Vizela(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 2-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Maritimo win, 2 draws, 3 Chaves wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Maritimo 1-3 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Chaves 2-3 Maritimo | Segunda Liga |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Chaves 1-1 Maritimo | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Maritimo 1-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Feb 5, 2023 | Chaves 2-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2022 | Maritimo 1-2 Chaves | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Maritimo score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Chaves score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Chaves | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Maritimo vs Chaves?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maritimo vs Chaves?
- The Footlab AI model makes Maritimo the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Maritimo vs Chaves played?
- Maritimo vs Chaves is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Marítimo, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.