Mafra vs Arouca: prediction and stats
Taça de PortugalRound of 32Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra
The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Mafra. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mafra vs Arouca?
Arouca starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (2,125 vs 1,969).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mafra vs Arouca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mafra
4-3-3- 9Mamor Niang
- 7R. Matos
- 42A. Ngom
- 46Braima Samú
- 37A. Ba
- 8L. Neves
- 2M. Camara
- 3Kauê Alves
- 13Celso Raposo
- 15João Silva
- 1Francisco Lemos
Arouca
4-2-3-1- 17Barbero
- 7N. Djouahra
- 19A. Trezza
- 8T. Fukui
- 6E. van Ee
- 21Mateo Flores
- 18O. Lebedenko
- 28Tiago Esgaio
- 3José Fontán
- 15Javi Sánchez
- 12I. de Arruabarrena
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 06:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mafra have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Arouca have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | União Santarém(away) | 1-2 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Louletano(home) | 2-1 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Caldas(away) | 3-3 | Liga 3 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(home) | 2-2 | Liga 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | CF Os Belenenses(away) | 4-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Mafra wins, 3 draws, 1 Arouca win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2021 | Mafra 0-1 Arouca | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 17, 2021 | Arouca 0-0 Mafra | Segunda Liga |
| Mar 2, 2019 | Mafra 1-1 Arouca | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 28, 2018 | Arouca 2-2 Mafra | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Mafra score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arouca score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mafra | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Arouca | 1.3 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Mafra vs Arouca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mafra vs Arouca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Arouca the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Mafra.
- Where and when is Mafra vs Arouca played?
- Mafra vs Arouca is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Mafra, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.