Mārupe vs Tukums II: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Jaunmārupes stadions, Jaunmārupe
The Footlab model makes Mārupe the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Tukums II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mārupe vs Tukums II?
Mārupe starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,386 vs 1,259).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mārupe have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Tukums II have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(home) | 0-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Riga Mariners(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Metta / LU(away) | 0-9 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Riga FC II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 5 Mārupe win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Tukums II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Tukums II 1-2 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Tukums II 1-2 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Mārupe 1-0 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Mārupe 2-1 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| May 5, 2024 | Tukums II 0-1 Mārupe | 1. Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Mārupe score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Tukums II score 1.3 and concede 2.8. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mārupe | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Tukums II | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mārupe sit 6th in 1. Liga (16 points from 10 matches) and Tukums II sit 11th (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mārupe | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 30 | 25 |
| 10 | Tukums II | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 12 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mārupe vs Tukums II?
- The Footlab model makes Mārupe the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Tukums II.
- Where and when is Mārupe vs Tukums II played?
- Mārupe vs Tukums II is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Jaunmārupes stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.