Smiltene vs Riga Mariners: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 20Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Tepera stadions, Smiltene
The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 78%, against 13% for a draw and 9% for Smiltene. The most likely score is 1-3.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Smiltene vs Riga Mariners?
Riga Mariners is a heavy favourite: 1,622 Elo points against 1,252 — a 370-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Smiltene have 3 wins, 1 draws and 11 defeats; Riga Mariners have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(home) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 3-5 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 1-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 4-0 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Smiltene win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Riga Mariners win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Riga Mariners 1-0 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Smiltene 1-3 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
| Jun 28, 2025 | Riga Mariners 3-1 Smiltene | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Riga Mariners vs Smiltene on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Smiltene score 1.4 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Riga Mariners score 2.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smiltene | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Riga Mariners | 2.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Smiltene sit 13th in 1. Liga (4 points from 10 matches) and Riga Mariners sit 4th (22 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 35 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 4 |
| 13 | Smiltene | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 47 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Smiltene vs Riga Mariners?
- The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 78%, against 13% for a draw and 9% for Smiltene.
- Where and when is Smiltene vs Riga Mariners played?
- Smiltene vs Riga Mariners is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Tepera stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.