Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka played?

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sunpro Alwin Stadium, Matsumoto

Matsumoto Yamaga

Osaka

The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka?

A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Matsumoto Yamaga (1,699) and Osaka (1,714).

Matsumoto Yamaga win43 %

Draw27 %

Osaka win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Matsumoto Yamaga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Osaka have 3, 7 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Matsumoto Yamaga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 16, 2026	Biwako Shiga(home)	2-3	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kochi United(away)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 25, 2026	Ventforet Kofu(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Nara Club(home)	0-2	J2/J3 League

Osaka
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	FC Ryukyu(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Nara Club(away)	4-1	Emperor Cup
Aug 16, 2026	Parceiro Nagano(home)	4-2	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Gainare Tottori(away)	1-1	J3 League
Jul 19, 2026	Avispa Fukuoka(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Osaka win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Nov 16, 2025	Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Osaka	J3 League
May 25, 2025	Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 Osaka	Emperor Cup
May 7, 2025	Osaka 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League
Jul 14, 2024	Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 Osaka	J3 League
Mar 23, 2024	Osaka 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League
Sep 3, 2023	Osaka 3-1 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League

Last archived meeting: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka on Nov 16, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Osaka score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Matsumoto Yamaga	1.5	1.2	4	8/15	8/15
Osaka	1.5	1.4	1	11/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th in J3 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Osaka sit 7th (5 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Osaka	3	1	2	0	7	5	5
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	3	0	2	1	4	5	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka?: The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Osaka.
Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka played?: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Osaka is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.