Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sagamihara Gion Stadium, Sagamihara
The Footlab model makes Sagamihara the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Parceiro Nagano. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano?
Sagamihara starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,768 vs 1,595).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sagamihara have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Parceiro Nagano have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Kanazawa(home) | 2-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(away) | 4-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 3-0 | J2/J3 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 4-3 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(away) | 1-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Fukui United(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Osaka(away) | 2-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Kamatamare Sanuki(away) | 0-0 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Sagamihara win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Parceiro Nagano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2025 | Sagamihara 2-1 Parceiro Nagano | J3 League |
| May 3, 2025 | Parceiro Nagano 1-1 Sagamihara | J3 League |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Sagamihara 1-1 Parceiro Nagano | J3 League |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Parceiro Nagano 1-1 Sagamihara | J3 League |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Parceiro Nagano 1-0 Sagamihara | J3 League |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Sagamihara 0-1 Parceiro Nagano | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano on Sep 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sagamihara score 1.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Parceiro Nagano score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sagamihara | 1.8 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Parceiro Nagano | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sagamihara sit 3rd in J3 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Parceiro Nagano sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sagamihara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Parceiro Nagano | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano?
- The Footlab model makes Sagamihara the favourite at 66%, against 21% for a draw and 13% for Parceiro Nagano.
- Where and when is Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano played?
- Sagamihara vs Parceiro Nagano is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sagamihara Gion Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.