Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Fukushima United: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Shoda Shoyu Stadium, Maebashi
The Footlab model makes Thespakusatsu Gunma the favourite at 43%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Fukushima United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Fukushima United?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Thespakusatsu Gunma (1,663) and Fukushima United (1,673).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thespakusatsu Gunma have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Fukushima United have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-4 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tohoku Gakuin University(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sagamihara(home) | 1-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 0-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gainare Tottori(away) | 1-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Oyama(home) | 7-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kanazawa(away) | 3-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kamatamare Sanuki(home) | 1-2 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Thespakusatsu Gunma win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Fukushima United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-2 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| May 6, 2025 | Fukushima United 2-4 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J3 League |
| Dec 8, 2019 | Fukushima United 1-2 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J3 League |
| Jul 7, 2019 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 2-0 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Oct 21, 2018 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-0 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Mar 11, 2018 | Fukushima United 2-1 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Fukushima United on Oct 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Thespakusatsu Gunma score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fukushima United score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Fukushima United | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Thespakusatsu Gunma sit 20th in J3 League (0 points from 3 matches) and Fukushima United sit 19th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Fukushima United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Fukushima United?
- The Footlab model makes Thespakusatsu Gunma the favourite at 43%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Fukushima United.
- Where and when is Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Fukushima United played?
- Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Fukushima United is played on September 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Shoda Shoyu Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.