Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare: prediction and stats
J-League CupRound of 128Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sunpro Alwin Stadium, Matsumoto
The Footlab model makes Shonan Bellmare the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Matsumoto Yamaga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare?
Shonan Bellmare starts as the favourite with a 139-point Elo edge (1,840 vs 1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Matsumoto Yamaga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Shonan Bellmare have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ehime FC(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nara Club(home) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki(away) | 0-0 | J2 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Montedio Yamagata(home) | 1-0 | J2 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Oita Trinita(away) | 1-0 | J2 League |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sagan Tosu(away) | 0-1 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Shonan Bellmare win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2019 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Shonan Bellmare | J1 League |
| Apr 14, 2019 | Shonan Bellmare 1-1 Matsumoto Yamaga | J1 League |
| Aug 5, 2017 | Shonan Bellmare 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga | J2 League |
| May 21, 2017 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-2 Shonan Bellmare | J2 League |
| Oct 10, 2015 | Shonan Bellmare 2-3 Matsumoto Yamaga | Emperor Cup |
| Sep 12, 2015 | Shonan Bellmare 1-1 Matsumoto Yamaga | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare on Dec 7, 2019
How many goals should we expect?
Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Shonan Bellmare score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Shonan Bellmare | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shonan Bellmare | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare?
- The Footlab model makes Shonan Bellmare the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Matsumoto Yamaga.
- Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare played?
- Matsumoto Yamaga vs Shonan Bellmare is played on September 9, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J-League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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