Mbeya City vs Coastal Union: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC)Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya
The Footlab model makes Mbeya City the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Coastal Union. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mbeya City vs Coastal Union?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Mbeya City (1,506) and Coastal Union (1,541).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mbeya City have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Coastal Union have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Geita Gold(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(away) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tabora United(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Young Africans(away) | 1-4 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mashujaa(home) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Pamba Jiji(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Mbeya City win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Coastal Union win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Mbeya City 0-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Coastal Union 2-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Coastal Union 1-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Mbeya City 2-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 24, 2022 | Mbeya City 0-1 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 24, 2021 | Coastal Union 3-2 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Mbeya City vs Coastal Union on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mbeya City score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Coastal Union score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbeya City | 0.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Coastal Union | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mbeya City sit 5th in Ligi kuu Bara (6 points from 3 matches) and Coastal Union sit 14th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mbeya City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Coastal Union | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mbeya City vs Coastal Union?
- The Footlab model makes Mbeya City the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Coastal Union.
- Where and when is Mbeya City vs Coastal Union played?
- Mbeya City vs Coastal Union is played on December 11, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC) at Sokoine Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.