Mbeya City vs Coastal Union: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC)Sokoine Stadium, Mbeya
The Footlab AI model makes Mbeya City the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Coastal Union. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mbeya City wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.0% of the 3,331 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mbeya City vs Coastal Union?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Mbeya City (1,542) and Coastal Union (1,621).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mbeya City vs Coastal Union
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mbeya City
4-3-3- 22V. Mayanga
- 10E. Ambokile
- 49O. Mwajanga
- 20H. Haji
- 32O. Abdallah
- 21J. Mwanuke
- 14Nassor Mbarouk
- 4K. Pillar
- 26A. Buha
- 60B. Maranyingi
- 31T. Reuben
Coastal Union
4-3-3- 9M. M. Maabad
- 69N. Mussa
- 25S. Kichuya
- 16G. Manyasi
- 13K. Gradi
- 34S. Mwanza
- 26R. Aidan
- 5A. A. Msangi
- 4A. Laurent
- 59Adam Arafat
- 18C. Ramadhani
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 05:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mbeya City have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Coastal Union have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 1-3 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Tabora United(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Fountain Gate(away) | 2-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 12, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Polisi Tanzania(away) | 2-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Mbeya City wins, 1 draw, 5 Coastal Union wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Mbeya City 0-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Coastal Union 2-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Coastal Union 1-0 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Mbeya City 2-2 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 24, 2022 | Mbeya City 0-1 Coastal Union | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 24, 2021 | Coastal Union 3-2 Mbeya City | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Mbeya City vs Coastal Union on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mbeya City score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Coastal Union score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbeya City | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Coastal Union | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mbeya City sit 9th in Ligi kuu Bara (10 points from 8 matches) and Coastal Union sit 10th (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mbeya City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Coastal Union | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
A question about Mbeya City vs Coastal Union?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mbeya City vs Coastal Union?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mbeya City the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Coastal Union.
- Where and when is Mbeya City vs Coastal Union played?
- Mbeya City vs Coastal Union is played on December 11, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC) at Sokoine Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.0% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.