Pamba Jiji vs Kagera Sugar: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 15Kick-off on December 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Pamba Jiji the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Kagera Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pamba Jiji vs Kagera Sugar?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Pamba Jiji (1,499) and Kagera Sugar (1,448).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pamba Jiji have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Kagera Sugar have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Azam(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Simba(home) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dodoma Jiji(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Coastal Union(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 27, 2026 | JKT Tanzania(home) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Pamba Jiji win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Kagera Sugar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2025 | Kagera Sugar 2-1 Pamba Jiji | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Pamba Jiji 1-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Kagera Sugar vs Pamba Jiji on Mar 7, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Pamba Jiji score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pamba Jiji | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pamba Jiji sit 12th in Ligi kuu Bara (1 points from 3 matches) and Kagera Sugar sit 15th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pamba Jiji | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pamba Jiji vs Kagera Sugar?
- The Footlab model makes Pamba Jiji the favourite at 61%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Kagera Sugar.
- Where and when is Pamba Jiji vs Kagera Sugar played?
- Pamba Jiji vs Kagera Sugar is played on December 11, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC), in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.