Mérida AD vs Cultural Leonesa: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 35Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida
The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Cultural Leonesa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Cultural Leonesa?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Mérida AD (1,871) and Cultural Leonesa (1,835).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Cultural Leonesa have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Alcorcon(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al-Nassr(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Osasuna II(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Athletic Club II(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Mérida AD win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Cultural Leonesa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2023 | Mérida AD 3-1 Cultural Leonesa | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jan 15, 2023 | Cultural Leonesa 2-0 Mérida AD | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Mérida AD vs Cultural Leonesa on Apr 23, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cultural Leonesa score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mérida AD | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Cultural Leonesa | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mérida AD | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 47 | 53 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Cultural Leonesa?
- The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 46%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for Cultural Leonesa.
- Where and when is Mérida AD vs Cultural Leonesa played?
- Mérida AD vs Cultural Leonesa is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.