Metta / LU vs Mārupe: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Daugavas Stadionā, Riga
The Footlab model makes Metta / LU the favourite at 84%, against 10% for a draw and 6% for Mārupe. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metta / LU vs Mārupe?
Metta / LU starts as the favourite with a 265-point Elo edge (1,651 vs 1,386).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metta / LU have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Mārupe have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(away) | 2-0 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-4 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 12-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Riga FC II(away) | 2-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 9-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(home) | 0-1 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(away) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Metta / LU win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Mārupe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Mārupe 0-4 Metta / LU | 1. Liga |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Mārupe 1-4 Metta / LU | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Metta / LU score 4.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mārupe score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 81% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metta / LU | 4.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 13/15 |
| Mārupe | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metta / LU sit 1st in 1. Liga (25 points from 10 matches) and Mārupe sit 6th (16 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metta / LU | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 9 | 25 |
| 1 | Metta / LU | 17 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 71 | 14 | 44 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 16 |
| 6 | Mārupe | 18 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 30 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metta / LU vs Mārupe?
- The Footlab model makes Metta / LU the favourite at 84%, against 10% for a draw and 6% for Mārupe.
- Where and when is Metta / LU vs Mārupe played?
- Metta / LU vs Mārupe is played on November 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Daugavas Stadionā, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 81% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.