Riga Mariners vs Leevon / PPK: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 26Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Leevon / PPK. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Riga Mariners vs Leevon / PPK?
Riga Mariners starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (1,622 vs 1,495).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Riga Mariners have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Leevon / PPK have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 4-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Smiltene(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mārupe(away) | 1-0 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Skanste(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Riga Mariners(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Riga Mariners win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Leevon / PPK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Leevon / PPK 2-1 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Leevon / PPK 2-3 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Riga Mariners 1-1 Leevon / PPK | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Leevon / PPK vs Riga Mariners on Jul 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Riga Mariners score 2.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Leevon / PPK score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga Mariners | 2.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Leevon / PPK | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Riga Mariners sit 4th in 1. Liga (22 points from 10 matches) and Leevon / PPK sit 2nd (24 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leevon / PPK | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 24 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 20 | 39 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Riga Mariners vs Leevon / PPK?
- The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 19% for Leevon / PPK.
- Where and when is Riga Mariners vs Leevon / PPK played?
- Riga Mariners vs Leevon / PPK is played on November 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC), in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.