Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 37Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota
The Footlab model makes Minnesota United FC the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for San Jose Earthquakes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Minnesota United FC (1,790) and San Jose Earthquakes (1,747).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Minnesota United FC have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; San Jose Earthquakes have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(away) | 5-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 1-5 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Minnesota United FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 San Jose Earthquakes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-5 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 29, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes 4-2 Minnesota United FC | US Open Cup |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Minnesota United FC 4-1 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 9, 2025 | San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 1, 2024 | San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 21, 2024 | Minnesota United FC 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Minnesota United FC score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; San Jose Earthquakes score 1.7 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Minnesota United FC sit 10th in Major League Soccer (28 points from 21 matches) and San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th (33 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 33 | 33 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 29 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- The Footlab model makes Minnesota United FC the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for San Jose Earthquakes.
- Where and when is Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes played?
- Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes is played on November 8, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Allianz Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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