Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 29, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)Allianz Field, Saint Paul, Minnesota
The Footlab model makes Minnesota United FC the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Sporting Kansas City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City?
Minnesota United FC starts as the favourite with a 192-point Elo edge (1,787 vs 1,595).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Minnesota United FC have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Sporting Kansas City have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(away) | 5-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tigres UANL(away) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Colorado Rapids(away) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 0-4 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Minnesota United FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Sporting Kansas City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City 0-3 Minnesota United FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Minnesota United FC 3-0 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Sporting Kansas City 3-3 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Sporting Kansas City 0-2 Minnesota United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 2, 2024 | Minnesota United FC 3-1 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC on Jul 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Minnesota United FC score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Kansas City score 0.9 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Minnesota United FC sit 10th in Major League Soccer (28 points from 21 matches) and Sporting Kansas City sit 15th (15 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 29 | 28 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 20 | 51 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City?
- The Footlab model makes Minnesota United FC the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Sporting Kansas City.
- Where and when is Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City played?
- Minnesota United FC vs Sporting Kansas City is played on October 29, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at Allianz Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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