Where and when is Toronto FC vs DC United played?

Toronto FC vs DC United is played on October 28, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Toronto FC vs DC United: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)BMO Field, Toronto, Ontario

Toronto FC

DC United

The Footlab model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for DC United. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Toronto FC vs DC United?

Toronto FC starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,783 vs 1,670).

Toronto FC win52 %

Draw25 %

DC United win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toronto FC have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; DC United have 3, 9 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Toronto FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Inter Miami(away)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	Charlotte(home)	3-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	New England Revolution(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 31, 2026	New York City FC(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	DC United(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer

DC United
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Charlotte(away)	1-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	New England Revolution(home)	0-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	CF Montreal(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 1, 2026	Nashville SC(home)	2-2	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	Toronto FC(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Toronto FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 DC United win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 25, 2026	DC United 2-1 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
May 10, 2025	Toronto FC 2-0 DC United	Major League Soccer
Feb 23, 2025	DC United 2-2 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Aug 31, 2024	Toronto FC 1-3 DC United	Major League Soccer
Jun 1, 2024	DC United 2-2 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
May 27, 2023	Toronto FC 2-1 DC United	Major League Soccer

Last archived meeting: DC United vs Toronto FC on Jul 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Toronto FC score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; DC United score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Toronto FC	1.5	1.9	2	13/15	11/15
DC United	1.7	1.9	2	12/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Toronto FC sit 10th in Major League Soccer (24 points from 21 matches) and DC United sit 11th (24 points from 21 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
11	DC United	21	5	9	7	28	36	24

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs DC United?: The Footlab model makes Toronto FC the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for DC United.
Where and when is Toronto FC vs DC United played?: Toronto FC vs DC United is played on October 28, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at BMO Field, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.