Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 29, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)GEODIS Park, Nashville, Tennessee
The Footlab model makes Nashville SC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Philadelphia Union. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
Nashville SC starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (1,910 vs 1,782).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nashville SC have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Philadelphia Union have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Columbus Crew(home) | 3-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Inter Miami(home) | 4-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 4-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Austin(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Inter Miami(home) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 3-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Nashville SC win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Philadelphia Union win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Philadelphia Union 0-0 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Nashville SC 3-1 Philadelphia Union | US Open Cup |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Nashville SC 1-0 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Philadelphia Union 1-3 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Philadelphia Union 3-0 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Nashville SC 1-2 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nashville SC score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Philadelphia Union score 1.7 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Philadelphia Union | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nashville SC sit 1st in Major League Soccer (49 points from 21 matches) and Philadelphia Union sit 12th (21 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 17 | 49 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 38 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union?
- The Footlab model makes Nashville SC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Philadelphia Union.
- Where and when is Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union played?
- Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union is played on October 29, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at GEODIS Park, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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