New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Yankee Stadium, New York City
The Footlab model makes New York City FC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Atlanta United FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC?
A very open match: only 98 Elo points separate New York City FC (1,793) and Atlanta United FC (1,695).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New York City FC have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Atlanta United FC have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 1-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 New York City FC win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Atlanta United FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2025 | New York City FC 4-0 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Atlanta United FC 4-3 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Atlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 6, 2024 | New York City FC 1-1 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 21, 2023 | Atlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 8, 2023 | New York City FC 1-1 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC on Jun 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
New York City FC score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atlanta United FC score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Atlanta United FC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
New York City FC sit 7th in Major League Soccer (26 points from 20 matches) and Atlanta United FC sit 15th (18 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | New York City FC | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 26 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC?
- The Footlab model makes New York City FC the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Atlanta United FC.
- Where and when is New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC played?
- New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC is played on October 28, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Yankee Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 28, 2026Toronto FCvsDC United
- Oct 28, 2026New England RevolutionvsNew York Red Bulls
- Oct 28, 2026Inter MiamivsFC Cincinnati
- Oct 28, 2026CharlottevsCF Montreal
- Oct 29, 2026St. Louis CityvsPortland Timbers
- Oct 29, 2026Minnesota United FCvsSporting Kansas City
- Oct 29, 2026Nashville SCvsPhiladelphia Union
- Oct 29, 2026AustinvsReal Salt Lake