Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Machida Zelvia (2,114) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2,088).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Machida Zelvia win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Apr 3, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Machida Zelvia on Oct 4, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?
- Machida Zelvia vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on November 7, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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