Mławianka Mława vs Warta Sieradz: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 18Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion MOSiR Mlawa, Mlawa
The Footlab model makes Warta Sieradz the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Mławianka Mława. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mławianka Mława vs Warta Sieradz?
Warta Sieradz starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,847 vs 1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mławianka Mława have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Warta Sieradz have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Łomża(away) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ząbkovia Ząbki(home) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Troszyn(away) | 4-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Jagiellonia II(home) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź II(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(home) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mławianka Mława win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Warta Sieradz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warta Sieradz 1-2 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Mławianka Mława 2-3 Warta Sieradz | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Warta Sieradz 3-0 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| May 24, 2025 | Mławianka Mława 4-0 Warta Sieradz | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Warta Sieradz 2-0 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Warta Sieradz 0-2 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Warta Sieradz vs Mławianka Mława on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mławianka Mława score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Warta Sieradz score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mławianka Mława | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Warta Sieradz | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mławianka Mława sit 14th in III Liga - Group 1 (4 points from 5 matches) and Warta Sieradz sit 12th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Warta Sieradz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 14 | Mławianka Mława | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mławianka Mława vs Warta Sieradz?
- The Footlab model makes Warta Sieradz the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Mławianka Mława.
- Where and when is Mławianka Mława vs Warta Sieradz played?
- Mławianka Mława vs Warta Sieradz is played on November 21, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion MOSiR Mlawa, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 21, 2026SwitvsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- Nov 21, 2026Jagiellonia IIvsMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
- Nov 21, 2026Lechia T. MazowieckivsWeszlo
- Nov 21, 2026ŁKS Łódź IIvsWigry Suwałki
- Nov 21, 2026ŁomżavsPelikan Łowicz
- Nov 21, 2026Wisła Płock IIvsOlimpia Elbląg
- Nov 21, 2026TroszynvsWidzew II
- Nov 21, 2026Ząbkovia ZąbkivsOlimpia Zambrów