Montevarchi Calcio vs Lucchese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 18Kick-off on January 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri, Montevarchi
The Footlab AI model makes Montevarchi Calcio the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Lucchese. The most likely score is 1-1. If Montevarchi Calcio wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,373 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montevarchi Calcio vs Lucchese?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate Montevarchi Calcio (1,627) and Lucchese (1,714).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Montevarchi Calcio vs Lucchese
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Montevarchi Calcio
Not enough data to predict the Montevarchi Calcio lineup.
Lucchese
4-3-3- 9S. Magnaghi
- 70E. Saporiti
- 10A. Selvini
- 21E. Visconti
- 27R. Gucher
- 96G. Galli
- 5S. Benedetti
- 29E. Antoni
- 30A. Gemignani
- 3N. Rizzo
- 59R. Melgrati
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 10:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montevarchi Calcio have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Lucchese have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rondinella(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ternana(away) | 1-4 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Progresso(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Robur Siena(away) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Ternana(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Seravezza(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Grassina(away) | 6-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 3-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Rondinella(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Montevarchi Calcio win, 1 draw, 3 Lucchese wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Lucchese 2-1 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie D - Girone E |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Montevarchi Calcio 0-0 Lucchese | Serie C - Girone B |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Lucchese 1-0 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie C - Girone B |
| Mar 15, 2022 | Montevarchi Calcio 2-0 Lucchese | Serie C - Girone B |
| Nov 7, 2021 | Lucchese 2-0 Montevarchi Calcio | Serie C - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Lucchese vs Montevarchi Calcio on Sep 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Montevarchi Calcio score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lucchese score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montevarchi Calcio | 0.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Lucchese | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montevarchi Calcio sit 12th in Serie D - Girone E (7 points from 6 matches) and Lucchese sit 3rd (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lucchese | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 11 | 13 |
| 12 | Montevarchi Calcio | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
A question about Montevarchi Calcio vs Lucchese?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montevarchi Calcio vs Lucchese?
- The Footlab AI model makes Montevarchi Calcio the favourite at 36%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Lucchese.
- Where and when is Montevarchi Calcio vs Lucchese played?
- Montevarchi Calcio vs Lucchese is played on January 6, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Gastone Brilli Peri, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.