Morecambe vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 34Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Mazuma Stadium, Morecambe, Lancashire
The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Morecambe. The most likely score is 1-1. If Merthyr Town wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,856 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morecambe vs Merthyr Town?
Merthyr Town starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (1,910 vs 1,777).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Morecambe vs Merthyr Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Morecambe
Not enough data to predict the Morecambe lineup.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 04:51 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morecambe have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Merthyr Town have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | AFC Rushden & Diamonds(away) | 1-2 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Worksop Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Darlington 1883(home) | 3-0 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Southport(home) | 2-0 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Marine(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Truro City(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Truro City(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Morecambe score 1.4 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morecambe | 1.4 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Merthyr Town | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morecambe sit 19th in National League - North (14 points from 11 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 15th (15 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Merthyr Town | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| 19 | Morecambe | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
A question about Morecambe vs Merthyr Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morecambe vs Merthyr Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Morecambe.
- Where and when is Morecambe vs Merthyr Town played?
- Morecambe vs Merthyr Town is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mazuma Stadium, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 20, 2027ChestervsSouth Shields
- Feb 20, 2027SouthportvsKing's Lynn Town
- Feb 20, 2027Oxford CityvsMarine
- Feb 20, 2027HerefordvsMacclesfield
- Feb 20, 2027Spennymoor TownvsDarlington 1883
- Feb 20, 2027Worksop TownvsHarborough Town
- Feb 20, 2027Bedford TownvsScarborough Athletic
- Feb 20, 2027Spalding UnitedvsHednesford Town