Where and when is Morecambe vs Merthyr Town played?

Morecambe vs Merthyr Town is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mazuma Stadium, in the National League - North.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Morecambe vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats

National League - NorthNational League North - 34Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Mazuma Stadium, Morecambe, Lancashire

Morecambe

Merthyr Town

The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Morecambe. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Morecambe vs Merthyr Town?

Merthyr Town starts as the favourite with a 213-point Elo edge (1,873 vs 1,659).

Morecambe win24 %

Draw24 %

Merthyr Town win52 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morecambe have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Merthyr Town have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Morecambe
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Radcliffe(away)	1-2	National League - North
Aug 18, 2026	South Shields(home)	0-1	National League - North
Aug 15, 2026	Harborough Town(away)	0-1	National League - North
Aug 8, 2026	Spennymoor Town(home)	1-1	National League - North
Aug 1, 2026	Barrow(home)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

Merthyr Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	South Shields(away)	1-1	National League - North
Aug 18, 2026	AFC Telford United(home)	2-2	National League - North
Aug 15, 2026	Spennymoor Town(away)	1-2	National League - North
Aug 8, 2026	Hednesford Town(home)	2-0	National League - North
Aug 1, 2026	Worcester City(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

How many goals should we expect?

Morecambe score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Morecambe	1.1	2.1	1	8/15	9/15
Merthyr Town	1.5	1.5	3	10/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Morecambe sit 24th in National League - North (1 points from 4 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 12th (5 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
12	Merthyr Town	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
24	Morecambe	4	0	1	3	2	5	1

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Morecambe vs Merthyr Town?: The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Morecambe.
Where and when is Morecambe vs Merthyr Town played?: Morecambe vs Merthyr Town is played on February 20, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mazuma Stadium, in the National League - North.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.