Where and when is Móstoles vs Rayo Vallecano II played?

Móstoles vs Rayo Vallecano II is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Soto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Móstoles vs Rayo Vallecano II: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 1Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de El Soto, Móstoles

Móstoles

Rayo Vallecano II

The Footlab model makes Móstoles the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Rayo Vallecano II. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Móstoles vs Rayo Vallecano II?

A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Móstoles (1,755) and Rayo Vallecano II (1,715).

Móstoles win44 %

Draw26 %

Rayo Vallecano II win29 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Móstoles have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Rayo Vallecano II have 1, 1 and 13.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Móstoles
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	A Madrid III(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
May 3, 2026	Villanueva Pardillo(home)	3-5	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 25, 2026	Pozuelo Alarcón(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 19, 2026	Leganés II(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 12, 2026	Trival Valderas(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Rayo Vallecano II
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Rayo Majadahonda(away)	0-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 26, 2026	Socuéllamos(home)	0-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 19, 2026	RSD Alcalá(away)	0-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 12, 2026	Intercity(home)	3-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
Apr 4, 2026	Elche II(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 5

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Móstoles win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Rayo Vallecano II win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 16, 2024	Rayo Vallecano II 0-4 Móstoles	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Oct 29, 2023	Móstoles 2-0 Rayo Vallecano II	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Jan 29, 2023	Rayo Vallecano II 0-1 Móstoles	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Sep 25, 2022	Móstoles 1-1 Rayo Vallecano II	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
May 9, 2021	Móstoles 4-0 Rayo Vallecano II	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Apr 18, 2021	Rayo Vallecano II 1-0 Móstoles	Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano II vs Móstoles on Mar 16, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Móstoles score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano II score 0.6 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Móstoles	1.1	1.5	0	10/15	4/15
Rayo Vallecano II	0.6	2.3	1	6/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
7	Móstoles	34	14	9	11	51	45	51

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Móstoles vs Rayo Vallecano II?: The Footlab model makes Móstoles the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Rayo Vallecano II.
Where and when is Móstoles vs Rayo Vallecano II played?: Móstoles vs Rayo Vallecano II is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Soto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.