Trival Valderas vs Villanueva Pardillo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 1Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Canaleja, Alcorcón
The Footlab model makes Trival Valderas the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Villanueva Pardillo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Trival Valderas vs Villanueva Pardillo?
Trival Valderas starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,829 vs 1,721).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Trival Valderas have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Villanueva Pardillo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | La Nucía(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | La Nucía(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Las Rozas(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 31, 2026 | Las Rozas(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 24, 2026 | Leganés II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Carabanchel(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| May 3, 2026 | Móstoles(away) | 5-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | SS Reyes II(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Racing Madrid(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Las Rozas(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Trival Valderas win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Villanueva Pardillo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Villanueva Pardillo 1-2 Trival Valderas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Trival Valderas 1-0 Villanueva Pardillo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Trival Valderas 2-0 Villanueva Pardillo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Villanueva Pardillo 2-0 Trival Valderas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
Last archived meeting: Villanueva Pardillo vs Trival Valderas on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Trival Valderas score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Villanueva Pardillo score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trival Valderas | 1.5 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Villanueva Pardillo | 1.3 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Trival Valderas sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (60 points from 34 matches) and Villanueva Pardillo sit 12th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Trival Valderas | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 36 | 60 |
| 12 | Villanueva Pardillo | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 45 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Trival Valderas vs Villanueva Pardillo?
- The Footlab model makes Trival Valderas the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Villanueva Pardillo.
- Where and when is Trival Valderas vs Villanueva Pardillo played?
- Trival Valderas vs Villanueva Pardillo is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Canaleja, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.