Móstoles vs Trival Valderas: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de El Soto, Móstoles
The Footlab AI model makes Trival Valderas the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Móstoles. The most likely score is 1-1. If Trival Valderas wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Móstoles vs Trival Valderas?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Móstoles (1,783) and Trival Valderas (1,835).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Móstoles vs Trival Valderas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Móstoles
Not enough data to predict the Móstoles lineup.
Trival Valderas
Not enough data to predict the Trival Valderas lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Móstoles have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Trival Valderas have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Unión Adarve(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Leganés II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Torrejón(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cala Pozuelo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fuenlabrada(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano II(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Las Rozas(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Real Aranjuez(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pozuelo Alarcón(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Parla Escuela(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Móstoles wins, 0 draws, 3 Trival Valderas wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Trival Valderas 1-0 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Móstoles 3-1 Trival Valderas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Móstoles 3-1 Trival Valderas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Trival Valderas 2-1 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Feb 5, 2023 | Móstoles 1-0 Trival Valderas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
| Oct 2, 2022 | Trival Valderas 3-0 Móstoles | Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 |
Last archived meeting: Trival Valderas vs Móstoles on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Móstoles score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Trival Valderas score 1.4 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Móstoles | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Trival Valderas | 1.4 | 0.8 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Móstoles sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (11 points from 5 matches) and Trival Valderas sit 3rd (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Trival Valderas | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Móstoles | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
A question about Móstoles vs Trival Valderas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Móstoles vs Trival Valderas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Trival Valderas the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Móstoles.
- Where and when is Móstoles vs Trival Valderas played?
- Móstoles vs Trival Valderas is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Soto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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