Motril vs Malaga City: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Escribano Castilla, Motril
The Footlab AI model makes Motril the favourite at 82%, against 13% for a draw and 5% for Malaga City. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,533 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motril vs Malaga City?
Motril starts as the favourite with a 298-point Elo edge (1,840 vs 1,542).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Motril vs Malaga City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Motril
Not enough data to predict the Motril lineup.
Malaga City
4-3-3- JJuanfran
- RR. Gómez
- JJosu Ozkoidi
- ÓÓscar Puente
- FF. Irisarri
- AAndrés del RÃo
- 2Chechu
- RRaúl Fernández Ortega
- JJuanjo
- AAntonio Contreras Lozano
- FFernando Padilla
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 10:56 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motril have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Malaga City have 2, 1 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Málaga II(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cantoria(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | UD San Pedro(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mancha Real(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Marbelli(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Motril wins, 0 draws, 2 Malaga City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Malaga City 1-2 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Motril 3-0 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Malaga City 1-2 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Malaga City 0-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Motril 1-2 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Motril 0-1 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Malaga City vs Motril on Sep 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Motril score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga City score 1.1 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motril | 1.2 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
| Malaga City | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motril sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (16 points from 9 matches) and Malaga City sit 18th (0 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Motril | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 10 | 16 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
A question about Motril vs Malaga City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motril vs Malaga City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Motril the favourite at 82%, against 13% for a draw and 5% for Malaga City.
- Where and when is Motril vs Malaga City played?
- Motril vs Malaga City is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 17, 2027MelillavsTorre del Mar
- Jan 17, 2027Granada IIvsAtlético Porcuna
- Jan 17, 2027Almería IIvsUD San Pedro
- Jan 17, 2027Mancha RealvsAtletico de Marbella
- Jan 17, 2027Málaga IIvsCantoria
- Jan 17, 2027Arenas ArmillavsCiudad de Torredonjimeno
- Jan 17, 2027MarbellivsHuétor Vega
- Jan 17, 2027Churriana VegavsAlhaurino