Motril vs Malaga City: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Escribano Castilla, Motril
The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 67%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Malaga City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motril vs Malaga City?
Motril starts as the favourite with a 257-point Elo edge (1,854 vs 1,597).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motril have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Malaga City have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Churriana Vega(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Churriana Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 10, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 4, 2025 | Polideportivo Almería(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 1, 2025 | Real Jaén(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Mancha Real(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mijas Las Lagunas(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Motril win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Malaga City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | Motril 3-0 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Malaga City 1-2 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Malaga City 0-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Motril 1-2 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Motril 0-1 Malaga City | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Malaga City 1-2 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
How many goals should we expect?
Motril score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga City score 1.0 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motril | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Malaga City | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Motril | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 55 | 29 | 65 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motril vs Malaga City?
- The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 67%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Malaga City.
- Where and when is Motril vs Malaga City played?
- Motril vs Malaga City is played on January 17, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 17, 2027MelillavsTorre del Mar
- Jan 17, 2027Granada IIvsAtlético Porcuna
- Jan 17, 2027Almería IIvsUD San Pedro
- Jan 17, 2027Mancha RealvsAtletico de Marbella
- Jan 17, 2027Málaga IIvsCantoria
- Jan 17, 2027Arenas ArmillavsCiudad de Torredonjimeno
- Jan 17, 2027MarbellivsHuétor Vega
- Jan 17, 2027Churriana VegavsAlhaurino