Malaga City vs Melilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal El Pozuelo, Torremolinos
The Footlab model makes Melilla the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Malaga City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga City vs Melilla?
Melilla starts as the favourite with a 215-point Elo edge (1,811 vs 1,597).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga City have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Melilla have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 4, 2025 | Polideportivo Almería(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 1, 2025 | Real Jaén(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Mancha Real(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Mijas Las Lagunas(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Málaga II(away) | 3-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Linares Deportivo(home) | 2-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Águilas(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Estepona(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga City score 1.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Melilla score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga City | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Melilla | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga City vs Melilla?
- The Footlab model makes Melilla the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Malaga City.
- Where and when is Malaga City vs Melilla played?
- Malaga City vs Melilla is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal El Pozuelo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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