Motril vs Mancha Real: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 33Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Escribano Castilla, Motril
The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motril vs Mancha Real?
Motril starts as the favourite with a 159-point Elo edge (1,854 vs 1,694).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motril have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Mancha Real have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Churriana Vega(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Churriana Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 10, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Motril win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Mancha Real win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Motril 3-1 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Mancha Real 0-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Motril 2-2 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Mancha Real 2-1 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 23, 2024 | Mancha Real 4-2 Motril | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Motril 0-2 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
How many goals should we expect?
Motril score 1.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mancha Real score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motril | 1.2 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Mancha Real | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motril sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (65 points from 34 matches) and Mancha Real sit 14th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Motril | 34 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 55 | 29 | 65 |
| 14 | Mancha Real | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motril vs Mancha Real?
- The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is Motril vs Mancha Real played?
- Motril vs Mancha Real is played on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 25, 2027MelillavsArenas Armilla
- Apr 25, 2027Atlético PorcunavsUD San Pedro
- Apr 25, 2027Granada IIvsTorre del Mar
- Apr 25, 2027Almería IIvsHuétor Vega
- Apr 25, 2027Málaga IIvsMalaga City
- Apr 25, 2027MarbellivsAtletico de Marbella
- Apr 25, 2027Churriana VegavsCiudad de Torredonjimeno
- Apr 25, 2027CantoriavsAlhaurino