MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln: prediction and stats
3. LigaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, Duisburg
The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for FC Viktoria Köln. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln?
MSV Duisburg starts as the favourite with a 128-point Elo edge (2,032 vs 1,905).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MSV Duisburg have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; FC Viktoria Köln have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SV Elversberg(home) | 1-3 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Verl(away) | 4-2 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SV Meppen(home) | 3-0 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arminia Bielefeld(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | 1. FC Nürnberg(home) | 1-1 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stuttgart II(away) | 3-1 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SSV Jahn Regensburg(home) | 2-5 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Kaiserslautern II(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Standard Liege(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 MSV Duisburg win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 FC Viktoria Köln win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | MSV Duisburg 1-1 FC Viktoria Köln | 3. Liga |
| Dec 21, 2025 | FC Viktoria Köln 0-0 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MSV Duisburg 1-0 FC Viktoria Köln | 3. Liga |
| Sep 23, 2023 | FC Viktoria Köln 2-0 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| Apr 17, 2023 | FC Viktoria Köln 2-2 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
| Oct 22, 2022 | MSV Duisburg 1-1 FC Viktoria Köln | 3. Liga |
Last archived meeting: MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
MSV Duisburg score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FC Viktoria Köln score 2.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSV Duisburg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| FC Viktoria Köln | 2.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MSV Duisburg sit 1st in 3. Liga (6 points from 2 matches) and FC Viktoria Köln sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | FC Viktoria Köln | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln?
- The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for FC Viktoria Köln.
- Where and when is MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln played?
- MSV Duisburg vs FC Viktoria Köln is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, in the 3. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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