MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II: prediction and stats
3. LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, Duisburg
The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Hoffenheim II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?
MSV Duisburg starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (2,034 vs 1,889).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MSV Duisburg have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Hoffenheim II have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SV Elversberg(home) | 1-3 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Verl(away) | 4-2 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SV Meppen(home) | 3-0 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Arminia Bielefeld(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf(away) | 2-0 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hansa Rostock(home) | 2-3 | 3. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC 08 Homburg(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Freiburg II(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 MSV Duisburg win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Hoffenheim II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | MSV Duisburg 3-1 Hoffenheim II | 3. Liga |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Hoffenheim II 4-1 MSV Duisburg | 3. Liga |
Last archived meeting: MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
MSV Duisburg score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Hoffenheim II score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSV Duisburg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Hoffenheim II | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MSV Duisburg sit 1st in 3. Liga (6 points from 2 matches) and Hoffenheim II sit 9th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Hoffenheim II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?
- The Footlab model makes MSV Duisburg the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Hoffenheim II.
- Where and when is MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II played?
- MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II is played on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena, in the 3. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Fortuna DüsseldorfvsVerl
- Oct 10, 2026SSV Jahn RegensburgvsHavelse
- Oct 10, 2026FC Ingolstadt 04vsSV Wehen
- Oct 10, 2026Würzburger KickersvsHansa Rostock
- Oct 10, 2026Preußen MünstervsRot-Weiß Essen
- Oct 10, 2026SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachvsWaldhof Mannheim
- Oct 10, 2026SV MeppenvsStuttgart II
- Oct 10, 2026Fortuna KölnvsFC Saarbrücken