NAC Breda vs De Graafschap: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 38Kick-off on May 14, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
The Footlab AI model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for De Graafschap. The most likely score is 1-1. If NAC Breda wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,443 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
On Elo ratings, NAC Breda has 1,771 points and De Graafschap 1,690.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
NAC Breda
4-2-3-1- 9M. Soumano
- 78J. Van Hecke
- 6M. Balard
- 10M. Nassoh
- 28C. Brym
- 14K. Sowah
- 12J. Van den Bergh
- 22R. Hillen
- 2B. Lucassen
- 4L. Greiml
- 1M. Verrips
De Graafschap
4-2-3-1- 9J. Kania
- 8D. Warmerdam
- 21K. Symons
- 10F. de Jong
- 7Bjorn van Zijl
- 23M. Diemers
- 3R. Besselink
- 16N. Martens
- 2J. Wieckhoff
- 15T. Kok
- 1T. Wieggers
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 02:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NAC Breda have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; De Graafschap have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | MVV(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 4-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | NAC Breda(home) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 NAC Breda wins, 2 draws, 1 De Graafschap win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | De Graafschap 1-2 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 3, 2023 | De Graafschap 1-0 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 10, 2023 | NAC Breda 2-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 9, 2022 | De Graafschap 1-1 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 11, 2022 | NAC Breda 2-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: De Graafschap vs NAC Breda on Sep 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
NAC Breda score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; De Graafschap score 1.6 and concede 3.0. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| De Graafschap | 1.6 | 3.0 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NAC Breda sit 5th in Eerste Divisie (17 points from 10 matches) and De Graafschap sit 16th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NAC Breda | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 17 |
| 16 | De Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 11 |
A question about NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
- The Footlab AI model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for De Graafschap.
- Where and when is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap played?
- NAC Breda vs De Graafschap is played on May 14, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Rat Verlegh Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.