Nara Club vs Sagan Tosu: prediction and stats
J-League CupRound of 128Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Konoike Athletic Stadium, Nara, Nara Prefecture
The Footlab model makes Sagan Tosu the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Nara Club. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nara Club vs Sagan Tosu?
Sagan Tosu starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (1,824 vs 1,662).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nara Club have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Sagan Tosu have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 3-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 1-4 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kagoshima United(home) | 1-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ehime FC(away) | 1-4 | J3 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Matsumoto Yamaga(away) | 2-0 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tochigi City(home) | 1-3 | J2 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tokushima Vortis(away) | 0-0 | J2 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 2-0 | J2 League |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 7-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Shonan Bellmare(home) | 1-0 | J2/J3 League |
How many goals should we expect?
Nara Club score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sagan Tosu score 1.8 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nara Club | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Sagan Tosu | 1.8 | 0.8 | 8 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sagan Tosu | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nara Club vs Sagan Tosu?
- The Footlab model makes Sagan Tosu the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Nara Club.
- Where and when is Nara Club vs Sagan Tosu played?
- Nara Club vs Sagan Tosu is played on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Konoike Athletic Stadium, in the J-League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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