Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev: prediction and stats
Esiliiga BRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kalevi Staadion, Narva
The Footlab model makes Narva U21 the favourite at 66%, against 17% for a draw and 17% for Tartu Kalev. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Narva U21 (1,344) and Tartu Kalev (1,291).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Narva U21 have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Tartu Kalev have 10, 0 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tulevik(away) | 3-3 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Levadia U19(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Johvi Phoenix(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Legion(away) | 3-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev II(home) | 5-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Luunja(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Parnu JK Vaprus U21(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-8 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tulevik(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga B |
| Aug 1, 2026 | JK Tabasalu(home) | 3-1 | Esiliiga B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Narva U21 win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Tartu Kalev win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | Narva U21 3-2 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Tartu Kalev 3-0 Narva U21 | Esiliiga B |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Narva U21 6-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Tartu Kalev 1-1 Narva U21 | Esiliiga B |
| May 29, 2025 | Tartu Kalev 2-3 Narva U21 | Esiliiga B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Narva U21 0-1 Tartu Kalev | Esiliiga B |
Last archived meeting: Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev on Jun 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Narva U21 score 2.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Tartu Kalev score 3.3 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narva U21 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Tartu Kalev | 3.3 | 2.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Narva U21 sit 1st in Esiliiga B (45 points from 24 matches) and Tartu Kalev sit 5th (40 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Narva U21 | 24 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 34 | 45 |
| 5 | Tartu Kalev | 24 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 64 | 46 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev?
- The Footlab model makes Narva U21 the favourite at 66%, against 17% for a draw and 17% for Tartu Kalev.
- Where and when is Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev played?
- Narva U21 vs Tartu Kalev is played on October 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kalevi Staadion, in the Esiliiga B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.