Where and when is Natsional Sofia vs Kyustendil played?

Natsional Sofia vs Kyustendil is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Southwest.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Natsional Sofia vs Kyustendil: prediction and stats

Third League - SouthwestSouthwest - 6Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)

Natsional Sofia

Kyustendil

The Footlab model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Kyustendil. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Natsional Sofia vs Kyustendil?

A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Natsional Sofia (1,463) and Kyustendil (1,450).

Natsional Sofia win50 %

Draw25 %

Kyustendil win25 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Natsional Sofia have 3 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Kyustendil have 3, 5 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Natsional Sofia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Strumska Slava(home)	0-3	Third League - Southwest
Aug 15, 2026	Oborishte(away)	1-3	Third League - Southwest
Aug 8, 2026	Bansko(home)	2-2	Third League - Southwest
Aug 1, 2026	FK Minyor Pernik(away)	0-1	Third League - Southwest
Sep 18, 2024	Rilski Sportist(home)	3-4	Cup

Kyustendil
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	CSKA Sofia III(away)	1-1	Third League - Southwest
Aug 15, 2026	Balkan Botevgrad(home)	0-1	Third League - Southwest
Aug 8, 2026	Kostinbrod(away)	1-3	Third League - Southwest
Aug 1, 2026	Slivnishki geroy(home)	2-1	Third League - Southwest
May 29, 2026	Septemvri Simitli(away)	0-2	Third League - Southwest

How many goals should we expect?

Natsional Sofia score 3.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 9; Kyustendil score 0.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Natsional Sofia	3.4	2.0	2	5/9	8/9
Kyustendil	0.7	1.6	4	8/15	7/15

Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Natsional Sofia sit 17th in Third League - Southwest (1 points from 4 matches) and Kyustendil sit 15th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
15	Kyustendil	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
17	Natsional Sofia	4	0	1	3	3	9	1

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Natsional Sofia vs Kyustendil?: The Footlab model makes Natsional Sofia the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for Kyustendil.
Where and when is Natsional Sofia vs Kyustendil played?: Natsional Sofia vs Kyustendil is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Third League - Southwest.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.