Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for NEC Nijmegen. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Ajax (2,110) and NEC Nijmegen (2,052).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; NEC Nijmegen have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Shelbourne(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | PEC Zwolle(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Shelbourne(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ajax win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 NEC Nijmegen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| May 11, 2025 | Ajax 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 1, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Ajax 2-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 3, 2023 | NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Ajax score 2.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; NEC Nijmegen score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ajax sit 5th in Eredivisie (4 points from 2 matches) and NEC Nijmegen sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
- The Footlab model makes Ajax the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for NEC Nijmegen.
- Where and when is Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen played?
- Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen is played on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.