Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for NEC Nijmegen. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (2,122 vs 1,995).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 23S. Berghuis
- 9K. Dolberg
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 18D. Klaassen
- 15Y. Baas
- 12Caio Henrique
- 6T. Kehrer
- 3A. Gaaei
- 1M. ter Stegen
Known absences
A. BouwmanOut · Injured- D. BlindOut · Injured
S. AdingraOut · Foot injury
NEC Nijmegen
3-4-2-1- 30B. Linssen
- 9T. Chery
- 20N. Lebreton
- 6D. Nejašmić
- 10D. Tadić
- 77A. Thomas
- 99Clement Bischoff
- 21T. Storm
- 73Gabriel Brás
- 4P. Schuurs
- 12N. Polster
Known absences
A. KaplanOut · Knee injury- B. NuytinckOut · Ankle injury
- Deveron FonvilleOut · Ankle injury
- E. MorOut · Injured
G. CrettazOut · Injured- Kevin KersDoubtful · Injured
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ajax have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat; NEC Nijmegen have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Telstar(away) | 4-0 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 0-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Feyenoord(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ajax wins, 3 draws, 1 NEC Nijmegen win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Ajax 1-1 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 20, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| May 11, 2025 | Ajax 0-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 1, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Ajax 2-2 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Dec 3, 2023 | NEC Nijmegen 1-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Ajax score 3.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; NEC Nijmegen score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 3.2 | 1.4 | 2 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ajax sit 5th in Eredivisie (14 points from 7 matches) and NEC Nijmegen sit 11th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 9 | 14 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 8 |
A question about Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for NEC Nijmegen.
- Where and when is Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen played?
- Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen is played on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Johan Cruijff Arena, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.