Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Nesebar
The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for CSKA Sofia II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II?
A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Nesebar (1,698) and CSKA Sofia II (1,737).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nesebar have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; CSKA Sofia II have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pirin Blagoevgrad(home) | 7-0 | Second League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sportist Svoge(away) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Dobrudzha(home) | 2-0 | Second League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Montana(away) | 1-3 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home) | 1-5 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas(away) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Hebar 1918(home) | 4-3 | Second League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Pirin Blagoevgrad(away) | 3-0 | Second League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Vihren(away) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Rilski Sportist(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Nesebar win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 CSKA Sofia II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | CSKA Sofia II 2-0 Nesebar | Second League |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Nesebar 0-3 CSKA Sofia II | Second League |
| Feb 26, 2017 | CSKA Sofia II 2-0 Nesebar | Second League |
| Aug 21, 2016 | Nesebar 0-0 CSKA Sofia II | Second League |
Last archived meeting: CSKA Sofia II vs Nesebar on Mar 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nesebar score 3.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; CSKA Sofia II score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesebar | 3.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| CSKA Sofia II | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nesebar sit 3rd in Second League (9 points from 5 matches) and CSKA Sofia II sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CSKA Sofia II | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Nesebar | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II?
- The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for CSKA Sofia II.
- Where and when is Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II played?
- Nesebar vs CSKA Sofia II is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 10, 2026Etar Veliko TarnovovsFratria
- Oct 10, 2026MontanavsLudogorets II
- Oct 10, 2026DobrudzhavsChernomorets 1919 Burgas
- Oct 10, 2026Pirin BlagoevgradvsSpartak Pleven
- Oct 10, 2026Yantra 2019vsVihren
- Oct 10, 2026MarekvsBeroe
- Oct 10, 2026Rilski SportistvsLokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
- Oct 10, 2026Sportist SvogevsHebar 1918