Nesebar vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Nesebar
The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nesebar vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa?
Nesebar starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (1,707 vs 1,552).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nesebar have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pirin Blagoevgrad(home) | 7-0 | Second League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sportist Svoge(away) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Dobrudzha(home) | 2-0 | Second League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Montana(away) | 1-3 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home) | 1-5 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo(home) | 2-1 | Second League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Spartak Pleven(away) | 1-0 | Second League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fratria(home) | 0-2 | Second League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Ludogorets II(away) | 1-2 | Second League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas(home) | 1-1 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nesebar win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2025 | Nesebar 1-1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | Second League |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 0-0 Nesebar | Second League |
| May 4, 2019 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 1-1 Nesebar | Second League |
| Oct 27, 2018 | Nesebar 2-1 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | Second League |
| May 19, 2018 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa 3-0 Nesebar | Second League |
| Nov 18, 2017 | Nesebar 4-2 Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | Second League |
Last archived meeting: Nesebar vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa on May 24, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nesebar score 3.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nesebar | 3.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nesebar sit 4th in Second League (9 points from 5 matches) and Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa sit 10th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nesebar | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 9 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nesebar vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa?
- The Footlab model makes Nesebar the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa.
- Where and when is Nesebar vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa played?
- Nesebar vs Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa is played on April 3, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.