Netherlands vs Greece: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
The Footlab AI model makes Netherlands the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Greece. The most likely score is 1-1. If Netherlands wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Netherlands vs Greece?
Netherlands starts as the favourite with a 161-point Elo edge (1,804 vs 1,643).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Netherlands vs Greece
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Netherlands
4-2-3-1- 17M. Meerdink
- 7C. Summerville
- 18J. Veerman
- 8R. Gravenberch
- 14T. Reijnders
- 6Q. Timber
- 4V. van Dijk
- 22D. Dumfries
- 15M. van de Ven
- 20T. Koopmeiners
- 1B. Verbruggen
Greece
4-4-2- 14V. Pavlidis
- 8F. Ioannidis
- 6D. Kourbelis
- 20C. Zafeiris
- 10C. Tzolis
- 19K. Karetsas
- 21K. Tsimikas
- 4K. Mavropanos
- 17M. Saliakas
- 5P. Retsos
- 12K. Tzolakis
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 05:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Netherlands have 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeat; Greece have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Serbia(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Greece(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Serbia(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Germany(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Morocco(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Germany(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Netherlands(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Germany(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Serbia(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Italy(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Netherlands wins, 1 draw, 0 Greece wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Greece 2-2 Netherlands | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 16, 2023 | Greece 0-1 Netherlands | Euro Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 7, 2023 | Netherlands 3-0 Greece | Euro Championship - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Netherlands score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Greece score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Greece | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Netherlands sit 1st in UEFA Nations League (8 points from 4 matches) and Greece sit 2nd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Netherlands | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 2 | Greece | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
A question about Netherlands vs Greece?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Netherlands vs Greece?
- The Footlab AI model makes Netherlands the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Greece.
- Where and when is Netherlands vs Greece played?
- Netherlands vs Greece is played on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Philips Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.