England vs Croatia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes England the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Croatia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win England vs Croatia?
England starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,853 vs 1,742).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, England have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Croatia have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | France(away) | 6-4 | World Cup |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Argentina(home) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Panama(away) | 2-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Ghana(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Croatia(home) | 4-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Ghana(home) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Panama(away) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | England(away) | 2-4 | World Cup |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Slovenia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Belgium(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 England win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Croatia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | England 4-2 Croatia | World Cup |
| Jun 13, 2021 | England 1-0 Croatia | Euro Championship |
| Nov 18, 2018 | England 2-1 Croatia | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2018 | Croatia 0-0 England | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 11, 2018 | Croatia 2-1 England | World Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
England score 2.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Croatia score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 2.5 | 0.7 | 10 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Croatia | 2.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for England vs Croatia?
- The Footlab model makes England the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Croatia.
- Where and when is England vs Croatia played?
- England vs Croatia is played on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The City Ground, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.