England vs Croatia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab AI model makes England the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Croatia. The most likely score is 1-1. If England wins, the most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win England vs Croatia?
England starts as the favourite with a 179-point Elo edge (1,894 vs 1,715).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for England vs Croatia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
England
4-2-3-1- 9H. Kane
- 8E. Anderson
- 10J. Bellingham
- 16M. Lewis-Skelly
- 11A. Gordon
- 7B. Saka
- 6M. Guéhi
- 3L. Hall
- 4J. Quansah
- 2T. Alexander-Arnold
- 1J. Pickford
Croatia
4-2-3-1- 20I. Matanović
- 14I. Perišić
- 8M. Kovačić
- 10L. Modrić
- 17P. Sučić
- 13N. Vlašić
- 4J. Gvardiol
- 2J. Stanišić
- 5L. Vušković
- 6J. Šutalo
- 1D. Livaković
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, England have 11 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats; Croatia have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Czechia(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Croatia(away) | 7-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Czechia(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Spain(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | France(away) | 6-4 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Spain(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | England(home) | 0-7 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Spain(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Czechia(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 2, 2026 | Portugal(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 England wins, 1 draw, 1 Croatia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Croatia 0-7 England | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 17, 2026 | England 4-2 Croatia | World Cup |
| Jun 13, 2021 | England 1-0 Croatia | Euro Championship |
| Nov 18, 2018 | England 2-1 Croatia | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2018 | Croatia 0-0 England | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 11, 2018 | Croatia 2-1 England | World Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
England score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Croatia score 1.6 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | 2.5 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Croatia | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
England sit 2nd in UEFA Nations League (9 points from 4 matches) and Croatia sit 3rd (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | England | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Croatia | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 3 |
A question about England vs Croatia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for England vs Croatia?
- The Footlab AI model makes England the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Croatia.
- Where and when is England vs Croatia played?
- England vs Croatia is played on November 12, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at The City Ground, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.