Serbia vs Germany: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd
The Footlab model makes Germany the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Serbia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serbia vs Germany?
Germany starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (1,787 vs 1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serbia have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Germany have 11, 0 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Spain(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Latvia(home) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Ecuador(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ivory Coast(home) | 2-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Curaçao(home) | 7-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | USA(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Finland(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Serbia win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Germany win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2019 | Germany 1-1 Serbia | Friendlies |
| Jun 18, 2010 | Germany 0-1 Serbia | World Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Serbia score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Germany score 2.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Germany | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serbia vs Germany?
- The Footlab model makes Germany the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Serbia.
- Where and when is Serbia vs Germany played?
- Serbia vs Germany is played on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rajko Mitić, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.