Serbia vs Germany: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Stadion Rajko Mitić, Beograd
The Footlab AI model makes Germany the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Serbia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Germany wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,748 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Serbia vs Germany?
Germany starts as the favourite with a 172-point Elo edge (1,773 vs 1,601).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Serbia vs Germany
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Serbia
5-4-1- 18M. CvetkoviÄ
- 10D. Tadić
- 14A. Živković
- 7A. Stanković
- 22S. Lukić
- 2K. Nedeljković
- 15S. Babić
- 3S. Pavlović
- 17A. Terzić
- 6N. Gudelj
- 23V. Milinković-Savić
Germany
4-4-2- 17F. Wirtz
- 10J. Burkardt
- 5A. Pavlović
- 9D. Scherhant
- 8T. Bischof
- 15L. Karl
- 13P. Treu
- 3W. Anton
- 2M. Thiaw
- 22D. Raum
- 1J. Urbig
Known absences
N. BrownOut · Injured- N. SchlotterbeckOut · Ligament Stretching
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 08:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Serbia have 5 wins, 0 draws and 10 defeats; Germany have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Germany(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Netherlands(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Greece(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Greece(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Serbia(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Greece(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Paraguay(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Serbia win, 1 draw, 1 Germany win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Germany 2-0 Serbia | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 20, 2019 | Germany 1-1 Serbia | Friendlies |
| Jun 18, 2010 | Germany 0-1 Serbia | World Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Serbia score 1.0 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Germany score 2.3 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serbia | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Germany | 2.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Serbia sit 4th in UEFA Nations League (0 points from 4 matches) and Germany sit 3rd (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Germany | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 4 | Serbia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
A question about Serbia vs Germany?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Serbia vs Germany?
- The Footlab AI model makes Germany the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Serbia.
- Where and when is Serbia vs Germany played?
- Serbia vs Germany is played on November 13, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rajko Mitić, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.