Norway vs Wales: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo
The Footlab AI model makes Norway the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Wales. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Norway vs Wales?
Norway starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,726 vs 1,581).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Norway vs Wales
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Norway
4-3-3- 9E. Haaland
- 21A. Schjelderup
- 20A. Nusa
- 8S. Berge
- 10M. Ødegaard
- 6P. Berg
- 3K. Ajer
- 7F. Aursnes
- 5D. Møller Wolfe
- 17T. Heggem
- 1Ø. Nyland
Wales
4-2-3-1- 9L. Koumas
- 5E. Ampadu
- 19S. Thomas
- 17J. James
- 11B. Johnson
- 10L. Cullen
- 3N. Williams
- 4B. Davies
- 15J. Dasilva
- 6B. Cabango
- 12D. Ward
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 10:04 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Norway have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Wales have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Portugal(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Wales(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Portugal(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Denmark(home) | 3-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 11, 2026 | England(home) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Denmark(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Norway(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Denmark(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Portugal(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Romania(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Norway wins, 0 draws, 1 Wales win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Wales 2-1 Norway | UEFA Nations League |
How many goals should we expect?
Norway score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Wales score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1 | 14/15 | 13/15 |
| Wales | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Norway sit 4th in UEFA Nations League (3 points from 4 matches) and Wales sit 3rd (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
A question about Norway vs Wales?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Norway vs Wales?
- The Footlab AI model makes Norway the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Wales.
- Where and when is Norway vs Wales played?
- Norway vs Wales is played on November 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Ullevaal Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.