Portugal vs Denmark: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League5Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Estádio José Alvalade, Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Portugal the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Denmark. The most likely score is 1-1. If Portugal wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portugal vs Denmark?
Portugal starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,848 vs 1,712).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Portugal vs Denmark
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Portugal
4-1-3-2- 9Gonçalo Ramos
- 11João Félix
- 8Bruno Fernandes
- 23Vitinha
- 17Pedro Neto
- 6João Palhinha
- 20João Cancelo
- 19Nuno Mendes
- 13Renato Veiga
- 3Rúben Dias
- 1Diogo Costa
Denmark
4-2-3-1- 9R. Højlund
- 23P. Højbjerg
- 21M. Hjulmand
- 20M. Daramy
- 14M. Damsgaard
- 8G. Isaksen
- 5J. Mæhle
- 2J. Andersen
- 13R. Kristensen
- 3O. Provstgaard
- 16M. Hermansen
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portugal have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Denmark have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Norway(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Denmark(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Norway(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Wales(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Spain(home) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Wales(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Portugal(home) | 2-4 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Wales(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Norway(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Ukraine(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Portugal wins, 0 draws, 1 Denmark win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Denmark 2-4 Portugal | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Portugal 5-2 Denmark | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Denmark 1-0 Portugal | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 13, 2012 | Denmark 2-3 Portugal | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Portugal score 2.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Denmark score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal | 2.1 | 0.8 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Denmark | 2.3 | 1.1 | 8 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Portugal sit 1st in UEFA Nations League (12 points from 4 matches) and Denmark sit 2nd (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
A question about Portugal vs Denmark?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portugal vs Denmark?
- The Footlab AI model makes Portugal the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 18% for Denmark.
- Where and when is Portugal vs Denmark played?
- Portugal vs Denmark is played on November 14, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Alvalade, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.