Where and when is New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC played?

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Sports Illustrated Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, New Jersey

New York Red Bulls

Toronto FC

The Footlab model makes New York Red Bulls the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Toronto FC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate New York Red Bulls (1,713) and Toronto FC (1,804).

New York Red Bulls win41 %

Draw25 %

Toronto FC win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New York Red Bulls have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Toronto FC have 2, 7 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

New York Red Bulls
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Chicago Fire(home)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	Nashville SC(home)	0-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	Atlanta United FC(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer
Aug 1, 2026	Orlando City SC(home)	3-2	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	Charlotte(home)	0-2	Major League Soccer

Toronto FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Inter Miami(away)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Aug 19, 2026	Charlotte(home)	3-3	Major League Soccer
Aug 15, 2026	New England Revolution(home)	2-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 31, 2026	New York City FC(away)	1-1	Major League Soccer
Jul 25, 2026	DC United(away)	1-2	Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 New York Red Bulls win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Toronto FC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 14, 2026	Toronto FC 1-1 New York Red Bulls	Major League Soccer
Jun 25, 2025	Toronto FC 1-1 New York Red Bulls	Major League Soccer
Mar 22, 2025	New York Red Bulls 2-1 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer
Oct 2, 2024	Toronto FC 1-4 New York Red Bulls	Major League Soccer
Jul 28, 2024	New York Red Bulls 0-0 Toronto FC	Leagues Cup
Jun 22, 2024	New York Red Bulls 3-0 Toronto FC	Major League Soccer

Last archived meeting: Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls on Mar 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

New York Red Bulls score 1.4 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Toronto FC score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
New York Red Bulls	1.4	2.1	0	11/15	9/15
Toronto FC	1.5	1.9	2	13/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

New York Red Bulls sit 8th in Major League Soccer (26 points from 21 matches) and Toronto FC sit 10th (24 points from 21 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
8	New York Red Bulls	21	7	5	9	31	43	26
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?: The Footlab model makes New York Red Bulls the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Toronto FC.
Where and when is New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC played?: New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Sports Illustrated Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.