Match

New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC: prediction and stats

Major League SoccerRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison, New Jersey

New York Red BullsToronto FC

The Footlab AI model makes New York Red Bulls the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Toronto FC. The most likely score is 1-1. If New York Red Bulls wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

New York Red Bulls starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,812 vs 1,703).

47%23%30%
New York Red Bulls winDrawToronto FC win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

New York Red Bulls

4-3-3
  1. 7C. Cowell
  2. 11J. Ruvalcaba
  3. 16J. Hall
  1. 37M. Sofo
  2. 15A. Mehmeti
  3. 10E. Forsberg
  1. 14J. Bazán
  2. 12D. Nealis
  3. 26T. Parker
  4. 59D. Padelford
  1. 34E. Horvath

Toronto FC

4-2-3-1
  1. 9J. Sargent
  1. 20D. Sallói
  2. 6N. Dorsch
  3. 7T. Corbeanu
  4. 71M. Cimermancic
  5. 11D. Etienne
  1. 3Matheus Pereira
  2. 22R. Laryea
  3. 13B. Kuscevic
  4. 25W. Zimmerman
  1. 1L. Gavran

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 03:46 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New York Red Bulls have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Toronto FC have 3, 6 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

New York Red Bulls
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 30, 2026St. Louis City(home)0-3Major League Soccer
Sep 18, 2026New York City FC(away)1-0Major League Soccer
Sep 12, 2026Columbus Crew(away)1-0Major League Soccer
Sep 10, 2026Los Angeles FC(away)0-2Major League Soccer
Sep 6, 2026Seattle Sounders(away)0-0Major League Soccer
Toronto FC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 27, 2026Nashville SC(away)0-2Major League Soccer
Sep 20, 2026St. Louis City(away)1-3Major League Soccer
Sep 12, 2026Orlando City SC(away)0-3Major League Soccer
Sep 9, 2026Nashville SC(home)2-1Major League Soccer
Sep 5, 2026Chicago Fire(home)4-4Major League Soccer

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 New York Red Bulls wins, 3 draws, 0 Toronto FC wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 14, 2026Toronto FC 1-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Jun 25, 2025Toronto FC 1-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Mar 22, 2025New York Red Bulls 2-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
Oct 2, 2024Toronto FC 1-4 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
Jul 28, 2024New York Red Bulls 0-0 Toronto FCLeagues Cup
Jun 22, 2024New York Red Bulls 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

Last archived meeting: Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls on Mar 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

New York Red Bulls score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Toronto FC score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
New York Red Bulls1.01.538/157/15
Toronto FC1.31.8211/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

New York Red Bulls sit 8th in Major League Soccer (33 points from 27 matches) and Toronto FC sit 13th (29 points from 27 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
8New York Red Bulls279612345133
13Toronto FC2761110395129

A question about New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC?
The Footlab AI model makes New York Red Bulls the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 30% for Toronto FC.
Where and when is New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC played?
New York Red Bulls vs Toronto FC is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Sports Illustrated Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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