Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
The Footlab model makes Inter Miami the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Atlanta United FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami?
Inter Miami starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (1,906 vs 1,698).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlanta United FC have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Inter Miami have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 1-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Toronto FC(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Leon(home) | 2-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atlanta United FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Inter Miami win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Inter Miami 4-0 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Atlanta United FC 1-2 Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Inter Miami 2-3 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Atlanta United FC 2-1 Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Inter Miami 2-1 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Atlanta United FC 2-2 Inter Miami | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC on Oct 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Atlanta United FC score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Inter Miami score 2.5 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Inter Miami | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlanta United FC sit 12th in Major League Soccer (21 points from 21 matches) and Inter Miami sit 2nd (39 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 49 | 40 | 39 |
| 12 | Atlanta United FC | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 36 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami?
- The Footlab model makes Inter Miami the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Atlanta United FC.
- Where and when is Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami played?
- Atlanta United FC vs Inter Miami is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Philadelphia UnionvsCharlotte
- Oct 17, 2026Minnesota United FCvsSt. Louis City
- Oct 17, 2026Orlando City SCvsDC United
- Oct 17, 2026New York Red BullsvsToronto FC
- Oct 17, 2026New England RevolutionvsChicago Fire
- Oct 18, 2026AustinvsVancouver Whitecaps
- Oct 18, 2026Houston DynamovsFC Dallas
- Oct 18, 2026Sporting Kansas CityvsReal Salt Lake