Aston Villa vs Liverpool: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Villa Park, Birmingham
The Footlab AI model makes Liverpool the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Liverpool wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Aston Villa (2,284) and Liverpool (2,299).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 10E. Buendía
- 44J. Manzambi
- 35João Gomes
- 7J. McGinn
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 5T. Mings
- 2M. Cash
- 29A. Wan-Bissaka
- 1Z. Suzuki
Liverpool
4-2-3-1- 9A. Isak
- 10A. Mac Allister
- 7F. Wirtz
- 29B. Barcola
- 23Víctor Muñoz
- 38R. Gravenberch
- 33R. Araújo
- 5J. Jacquet
- 4V. van Dijk
- 6M. Kerkez
- 1Alisson Becker
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 02:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aston Villa have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Liverpool have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Newcastle(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Lask Linz(away) | 6-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Bournemouth(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Aston Villa win, 2 draws, 3 Liverpool wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Aston Villa 4-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Aston Villa 2-2 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| May 13, 2024 | Aston Villa 3-3 Liverpool | Premier League |
| Sep 3, 2023 | Liverpool 3-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Liverpool on May 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Liverpool score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Liverpool | 1.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aston Villa sit 12th in Premier League (8 points from 7 matches) and Liverpool sit 5th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 8 |
A question about Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aston Villa vs Liverpool?
- The Footlab AI model makes Liverpool the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Aston Villa vs Liverpool played?
- Aston Villa vs Liverpool is played on December 30, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Villa Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.